Issue 02, 2026
Evaluation Method of Coupling Coordination Degree of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Set Pair Reasoning
JIN Juliang;SHEN Shixing;WU Chengguo;ZHOU Liangguang;ZHOU Rongxing;CUI Yi;【Objective】 This study aims to enhance the logical rationality and physical interpretability of the evaluation method for the coupling coordination degree between the support and pressure subsystems of regional water resources carrying capacity, while ensuring the consistency in dimension types and orders of magnitude changes between the coupling coordination degree evaluation results and the comprehensive evaluation levels of the subsystems of regional water resources carrying capacity. 【Methods】 The comprehensive evaluation level of each subsystem was characterized using the identity-discrepancy-contrary connection numbers. Based on the common overall objective of coupling and coordination among subsystems, a set pair reasoning method was constructed based on the logical multiplication operation of two identity-discrepancy-contrary connection numbers. The subtractive set pair potential of the connection number obtained from the multiplication operation of the connection numbers of the two subsystems was taken as the evaluation value of the coupling coordination degree between subsystems. A regional evaluation method of coupling coordination degree of water resources carrying capacity based on set pair reasoning(ECCD-SPR) was established and applied to 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province. 【Results】 The application results of ECCD-SPR indicated that the coupling coordination degree of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province showed a spatial distribution characteristic of gradually increasing from northern Anhui to central Anhui and southern Anhui. The evaluation value of the coupling coordination degree was consistent with the dimension types and orders of magnitude changes of the comprehensive level values of the subsystems, and the evaluation values showed strong discriminative capability. 【Conclusion】 ECCD-SPR deepens the coupling coordination degree from a state index describing the correlation strength between subsystems to an analytical index revealing the multiplication effect between the connection numbers of set pairs of subsystems. It reveals the principle of set pair multiplication coupling coordination in the water resources-economic society-ecological environment composite system. This method expands the quantitative calculation approach of water resources set pair reasoning and holds application prospects in the field of coupled coordination analysis such as between regional ecological conservation and high-quality development.
Hydrological Characteristics of Urumqi Glacier No.1 at Headwaters of Urumqi River Based on Wavelet Analysis
HOU Duoduo;HAO Huiqing;LI Zhongqin;JIA Yufeng;Teligeer;CAO Yongqiang;HAO Yonghong;【Objective】 This study aims to reveal the evolution patterns of the hydrological processes of Urumqi Glacier No.1 at the headwaters of Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains and their response mechanisms to meteorological factors, providing a scientific basis for regional water resources management and climate change adaptation. 【Methods】 The Mann-Kendall(M-K) test was applied to analyze the mass balance time series of Glacier No.1 from 1989 to 2019 to identify years with abrupt changes and variation trends. Glacier No.1 was divided into accumulation zone and the ablation zone according to the equilibrium line altitude(ELA). Wavelet analysis was employed to examine the periodicity, frequency, and phase characteristics of the glacier hydrological processes. 【Results】(1) Abrupt changes in the mass balance of Glacier No.1 occurred in 1993 and 1996, and the overall trend showed a continuous decline.(2) The mass balance in both the accumulation zone and the ablation zone exhibited multi-scale responses to precipitation and air temperature, dominated by a 1-year resonance period, with a lag response of approximately 6 months.(3) The mass balance in the ablation and the accumulation zone showed resonance at a short period of 6 months and a long period of 1 year. The hydrological transfer process between the two zones exhibited an immediate response effect.(4) The effects of precipitation, mass balance in the ablation zone, and evaporation on the total runoff in the glacier area all showed a 1-year resonance period. The response of total runoff lagged behind precipitation and evaporation by 1-2 months, and lagged behind glacial meltwater by approximately 6 months. 【Conclusion】 The mass balance of Glacier No.1 exhibits staged abrupt changes and a persistent deficit trend. Its hydrological processes display multi-scale resonance characteristics, with differentiated lagged responses among hydrological variables, revealing the buffering and regulating role of glaciers in runoff generation. Under the context of global warming, particular attention should be paid to the delayed contribution of glacial meltwater to runoff, and long-term in-situ monitoring of multiple glacial-hydrological elements should be strengthened.
Regulation and Simulation of Generalized Water Resources in Yanhe River Basin
XIA Fan;LI Xinsheng;JIA Dongdong;XU Yao;QIU Huiyang;HUANG Xiaodong;SU Yanmei;【Objective】 This study aims to analyze the key factors affecting the regional water supply-demand balance and develop evidence-based management strategies, thereby providing theoretical support and practical pathways for promoting sustainable water use and high-quality regional development. 【Methods】 Based on water footprint and blue-green water frameworks, this study innovatively explored the mechanisms of water resources stress in the river basin from a holistic view of water resources. Taking the Yanhe River Basin as an example, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model was employed to calculate basin-scale blue and green water volume, which was then coupled with a system dynamics model. Four future scenarios-natural development, water-resource-focused regulation, economic-growth-driven development, and ecological-priority management-were designed to quantitatively analyze their impacts on water resources carrying capacity, thereby proposing regulation strategies to enhance water resources carrying capacity. 【Results】 The SWAT model achieved R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE) values of 0.69 and 0.61 during the calibration period, and 0.88 and 0.78 during validation, indicating good simulation accuracy. The multi-year average blue water volume was 1.408 billion m3, and the multi-year average green water volume was 3.193 billion m3, highlighting green water as the dominant component of the river basin′s water resources. By 2035, agricultural, industrial, domestic, and ecological water demands in the river basin were projected to increase, with the projected blue water supply reaching only 93 million m3. Under the water-resource-focused regulation scenario, the supply-demand gap was minimized, averaging 5.9 million m3. However, apple and vegetable yields deviated from the planned targets by 361 300 t and 352 700 t, respectively, and industrial output was 2.213 billion yuan lower, indicating constraints on industrial and agricultural development. Under the economic-growth-driven development scenario, the supply-demand gap was the largest, averaging-52.2 million m3, further intensifying supply-demand pressure. In contrast, the results under the ecological-priority management scenario aligned closely with the planned targets, yielding an average supply-demand gap of-12.9 million m3. 【Conclusion】 The ecological-priority management scenario achieves a water supply-demand ratio of 1.33, and the simulated values of subsystems are generally consistent with the long-term development goals. This scenario effectively achieves a dynamic balance among ecological protection, economic development, and water resources utilization, serving as a strategic reference for high-quality development in the Yanhe River Basin in the future.
Study on Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water and Sediment Fluxes of Five Rivers into Poyang Lake
YU Yang;YAO Yi;YANG Guang;LI Chentao;XIA Chen;【Objective】 This study aims to reveal the long-term variation patterns, abrupt change characteristics, and driving factors of water and sediment fluxes of the five rivers into Poyang Lake, thereby providing scientific support for basin water resources management and water-sediment regulation strategies. 【Methods】 Based on runoff, sediment load, precipitation, and temperature data of the five rivers from 1960 to 2018, cumulative anomaly analysis, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Morlet wavelet analysis, and double mass curve methods were employed to systematically analyze the trends, abrupt change years, periodic features, and the contributions of climate change and human activities to water and sediment flux variations. 【Results】(1) The runoff from the five rivers into Poyang Lake remained generally stable throughout the study period, showing no significant long-term trend, whereas the sediment load declined markedly, with 1995 identified as the year of abrupt change and a reduction rate of 64.26%.(2) Runoff was dominated by short-term cycles of less than 10 years, associated with the regional monsoon climate, while sediment load showed long-term cycles exceeding 10 years, reflecting combined driving factors of climate change and human activities.(3) During the baseline period(1960-1995), the precipitation-sediment relationship remained stable. However, in the change period(1995-2018), the actual sediment load was much lower than the theoretical value, indicating that human activities significantly reduced sediment load per unit of precipitation.(4) Double mass curve analysis showed a stable precipitation-runoff relationship, whereas the slope of the precipitation-sediment relationship decreased significantly after 1995, indicating that sediment retention by reservoirs, soil and water conservation measures, and sand mining management were the dominant factors driving the sediment decline. 【Conclusion】 The sediment load processes of the five rivers into Poyang Lake have undergone significant changes after 1995, with human activities exerting a stronger regulatory effect than the direct impacts of climate change. Future basin management should integrate reservoir operation optimization, soil and water conservation projects, and sand mining control policies to enhance long-term sediment management and support ecological security in the Poyang Lake Basin.
Comprehensive Evaluation of Hydraulic Regulation of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project Based on Variable Cloud Model
CHEN Xiaonan;LU Minglong;ZHAO Hui;WU Miao;XU Xinyong;ZHANG Zhao;North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research;【Objective】 This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the hydraulic regulation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project(SNWD-MRP) to provide scientific support for precise scheduling decision-making. 【Methods】 Considering factors such as water level control objectives, water level decline constraints, gate regulation frequency, and response time, a hydraulic regulation evaluation system for the SNWD-MRP was established. A variable cloud comprehensive evaluation model based on a triangular distribution was developed through the integration of variable fuzzy set theory and cloud theory. Ten typical hydraulic regulation schemes for water transfer of the SNWD-MRP were evaluated and selected. 【Results】(1) Scheme 3 was relatively the best, with a comprehensive grade value of 2.76 and an evaluation grade of good. Scheme 6 was relatively the poorest, with a comprehensive grade value of 4.09 and an evaluation grade of relatively poor.(2) The evaluation grade of most scheduling schemes was average, and the comprehensive grade values were between 3.02 and 3.52, which reflected the conflict among different evaluation indicators.(3) The ranking results showed that safety-critical indicators, such as water level thresholds and fluctuation controls, had a significant influence on the evaluation of the schemes, which was consistent with the safety-first principle in the operation scheduling of the SNWD-MRP. 【Conclusion】 The variable cloud comprehensive evaluation model can effectively quantify and evaluate various scheduling schemes, and rank them accordingly. In the future, combined with the construction of digital twin technology, further research on the optimization and real-time control of regulation models can be conducted to provide technical support for intelligent scheduling of the SNWD-MRP.
Impact of Population and Impervious Surface Changes on Water Consumption in Henan Province
HUANG Xiaodong;WANG Runhong;LIU Wenkai;HU Qingfeng;LIU Hui;WANG Yanmei;YOU Jingqi;ZHANG Junhan;【Objective】 To reveal the relationship between population growth, impervious surface expansion, and changes in water consumption, and to provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of population, land, and water resources in Henan Province. 【Methods】 Based on panel data and remote sensing data from 2000 to 2022, the intensity difference index, decoupling index, and CCR model of data envelopment analysis were used to measure the intensity of population growth and impervious surface expansion in various cities of Henan Province, and the change trends were analyzed to reveal their influence on water consumption. 【Results】(1) The intensity of population growth and impervious surface changes in various cities of Henan Province increased. In 2010, the intensity of population growth changed from being higher than impervious surface expansion to being lower than impervious surface expansion. There was a spatial misalignment in the allocation of population and impervious surface.(2) At the provincial scale, the relationship between population and impervious surface was consistently characterized by weak decoupling, but the gap between population growth rate and impervious surface expansion rate gradually increased. At the municipal scale, the decoupling relationship between population and impervious surface underwent a process from being dominated by ″weak decoupling″ to being dominated by ″weak decoupling and strong decoupling″.(3) At the provincial scale, the effect efficiency of population was higher than that of impervious surface, and population growth was the dominant factor driving the increase in water consumption. At the municipal scale, there were regional differences in the effect efficiency of population and impervious surface on water consumption, and the dominance between population growth and impervious surface expansion alternated, demonstrating regional differentiation characteristics. 【Conclusion】 Population growth and impervious surface expansion both promote an increase in water consumption, but the correlation between population and water consumption is stronger. Henan Province should coordinate the scale and growth rate of population and impervious surface in various cities, adjust water use plans and industrial structures, and achieve the goal of coordinated development of population, land, and water resources.
Monitoring of Illegal Sand Mining and Migration Behavior in Dongping Lake from Perspective of Nighttime Light Remote Sensing
LIU Hui;ZHU Mengyuan;MIAO Changwei;LIU Junguo;LIU Xuemei;LIU Wenkai;LIU Xianlin;YANG Shiji;North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power;【Objective】 Nighttime light remote sensing is employed to analyze the correlation between nighttime light variations and activities such as illegal sand mining and migration in the Dongping Lake area, thereby providing decision-making references for the governance and planning of the lake. 【Methods】 NPP/VIIRS and Luojia 1-01 nighttime light remote sensing data were used, along with socioeconomic data and prior information of illegal activities in the river and lake basin. An improved hidden Markov model image optimization algorithm based on a time sliding window was applied to analyze illegal sand mining and migration activities in the Dongping Lake at a large spatial scale. The regional nighttime light intensity index and regional nighttime light gradient index were adopted as statistical indicators to characterize the overall nighttime light distribution in the Dongping Lake area. 【Results】 The results showed that from 2013 to 2020, nighttime light and illegal sand mining activities in the lake surface of Laohu Town showed a downward trend. From 2014 to 2015, the regional nighttime light intensity index decreased by 37.2%. Additionally, illegal sand mining activities in the southern part of the lake area decreased sharply, indicating effective control of such activities. In 2019, nighttime light in the lake area had nearly vanished, and illegal sand mining activities had ceased entirely. Migration activities were concentrated between 2013 and 2017. In 2017, nighttime light in the northern part of the lake area disappeared, indicating the completion of the relocation. In 2020, the return migration to Laohu Town proceeded smoothly, and faint nighttime light reemerged in the Huyuan community in the northern part of the lake area. With socioeconomic development, human activities became more active. Nighttime light in the flood detention area showed an increasing trend, with the weighted radiation intensity value rising at an average of 5.31% per year from 2015 to 2020. 【Conclusion】 Nighttime light remote sensing can effectively monitor the spatiotemporal changes in illegal sand mining and migration activities in Dongping Lake, with the results aligning closely with governance effectiveness. In the future, nighttime light remote sensing can be integrated into a dynamic monitoring system for rivers and lakes, providing technical support for evidence collection related to illegal activities and for population migration analysis.
Dynamic Monitoring and Evaluation of Ecological Environment Quality in Mining Areas Based on Adjusted Remote Sensing Ecological Index
SUN Zhenyu;LIU Haixin;WANG Xiao;HAN Xiaoqing;【Objective】 This study aims to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in the ecological environment quality of the Fengfeng mining area, thereby providing a scientific basis for ecological environment governance in the mining area. 【Methods】 Based on Landsat remote sensing data, an adjusted remote sensing ecological index(A-RSEI) was constructed using principal component analysis. Combined with geodetector, the ecological environment quality of the Fengfeng mining area from 2000 to 2020 was evaluated, and the driving factors were analyzed. 【Results】(1) From 2000 to 2020, the mean A-RSEI in the study area exhibited a trend of " initial decline followed by an increase, " with an overall increase of 14.42%. The overall ecological environmental quality exhibited a spatial pattern characterized by "higher in the east and lower in the west." The A-RSEI grade shifted from being dominated by moderate and good to being dominated by good and excellent, indicating a significantly positive trend in the ecological environment. The mean A-RSEI of Wutongzhuang Mine, Jiulong Mine, and Xinsan Mine all showed varying degrees of increase, indicating that ecological environment governance in the mining area achieved good results.(2) Spatiotemporal difference analysis revealed that the ecological environment quality in the study area showed a trend of "improvement-degradation-improvement" over the 21-year period. The proportions of improved, stable, and degraded areas were 45.88%, 35.21%, and 18.91%, respectively. Areas with significant degradation were mainly concentrated in the built-up area.(3) Land use was identified as a key driving factor for ecological environmental quality in the study area. The main influencing factors exhibited a two-factor enhancement relationship. Under the combined effects of precipitation and elevation, land use exerted the greatest influence on the spatial heterogeneity of A-RSEI. 【Conclusion】 The findings indicate that the overall ecological environment quality of the Fengfeng mining area has generally improved, and ecological governance efforts in the mining area have achieved significant results. However, the expansion of construction land continues to exert pressure on the local environment. Future efforts should focus on strengthening ecological restoration and soil and water conservation, optimizing land use structure, and promoting systematic and sustainable governance of the ecological environment in the mining area.
Estimation of Maize LCC and FVC Based on Ensemble Learning
YAO Yihan;SHEN Jianing;WANG Jian;LIU Yang;WANG Qilei;FENG Haikuan;YANG Hao;YUE Jibo;【Objective】 This study aims to develop a high-precision estimation method for maize leaf chlorophyll content(LCC) and fraction of vegetation cover(FVC) to address the accuracy issues caused by ″saturation″ when using vegetation indices for crop parameter estimation. 【Methods】 Vegetation indices(VI) and texture features(TF) extracted from unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) remote sensing images were used as inputs. The feasibility of applying three ensemble learning models including Stacking, Bagging, and Blending for estimating LCC and FVC was evaluated. The accuracy differences in LCC and FVC estimation using VI, TF, and VI+TF as model inputs were tested, and mapping and evaluation of LCC and FVC were conducted based on the optimal Stacking ensemble learning model. 【Results】 When VI+TF were used as input feature variables, the Stacking ensemble learning model demonstrated the best estimation performance for maize LCC(R2:0.922; RMSE: 3.609 SPAD units; MAE: 2.661 SPAD units) and FVC(R2:0.788; RMSE: 0.050; MAE: 0.039). 【Conclusion】 This study achieves high-precision estimation of maize LCC and FVC based on spectral and texture features and ensemble learning, providing methodological references for estimating crop trait parameters.
Research on Mechanical Properties and Impact Resistance of High-Fluidity Steel Fiber-Reinforced Rubber Concrete
XU Nuojun;CHEN Yongsheng;LI Yuxiao;DING Xinxin;QU Fulai;【Objective】 This study aims to analyze the effects of steel fibers and rubber particles on the mechanical properties, impact energy dissipation, ductility ratio, and toughness coefficient of high-fluidity concrete. Additionally, it seeks to enhance the mechanical and impact resistance properties of high-fluidity concrete. 【Methods】 Steel fiber-reinforced rubber concrete(SFRRC) test blocks with different steel fiber contents(0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.6%) and rubber particle volume substitution rates(10%, 15%, and 20%) were designed. Drop hammer impact tests and basic mechanical property assessments were conducted. A two-parameter Weibull function model was employed to predict the impact resistance lifespan of high-fluidity SFRRC. 【Results】(1) Steel fibers enhanced the cube compressive strength and splitting tensile strength of high-fluidity concrete, whereas the incorporation of rubber particles led to a reduction in strength;(2) Steel fibers significantly improved the impact resistance of high-fluidity concrete. Notably, concrete with a rubber particle volume substitution rate of 20% and a steel fiber content of 1.6% exhibited the highest number of impact cycles before final fracture, demonstrating optimal impact resistance;(3) Under constant steel fiber content, the impact resistance ductility ratio and toughness coefficient of high-fluidity rubber concrete increased with a higher rubber particle substitution rate. 【Conclusion】 Steel fibers and rubber particles exert distinct influences on the mechanical properties of high-fluidity concrete. However, both significantly enhance its impact resistance. The impact resistance lifespan of high-fluidity SFRRC adheres to the Weibull distribution model. This study serves as a valuable reference for evaluating the impact resistance performance of high-fluidity SFRRC.