Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition)

黄河流域水资源匮乏，黄河水源涵养区径流量受环境变化影响显著，科学厘清径流演变特征，定量解析径流变化原因，对黄河上游水源涵养和生态保护具有重要意义。以黄河上游大通河流域为研究对象，诊断其1961—2020年实测径流量的演变特征，并采用VIC模型定量分析径流变化原因。结果表明：(1)1961—2020年大通河享堂站实测径流量呈显著减少趋势，且在1990年发生突变；(2)1991—2020年实测年径流量较基准期1961—1990年的减少12%,其中4—10月份径流量减少27.7 mm,其他月份的增加4.4 mm;(3)VIC模型对大通河流域基准期天然径流量过程模拟效果较好，NSE效率系数为0.74,相对误差为0.46%;(4)气候变化使得1991—2020年径流量较基准期的增加21.8 mm,而人类活动使得径流量减少45.0 mm,其中水利工程建设及水量外调是享堂站径流量减少的重要原因。

The Yellow River Basin is shortage in water resources. The hydrological regime in the water conservation areas of the Yellow River Basin has been highly influenced by environment change. It is of significance to quantify attribution of runoff change for water conservation and ecological protection. Taking the Datong River in the upper Yellow River Basin as a case, this study investigated characteristics of runoff evolution during 1961—2020, and quantified impact of climate change and human activities on runoff change by using VIC model. The results showed that:(1) The measured annual runoff at Xiangtang station showed a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2020, with an abrupt change occurring in 1990.(2) The recorded annual runoff in 1991—2020 decreased by 12% relative to baseline of 1961—1990, among which, runoff decreased by 27.7 mm in the period from April to October and increased by 4.4 mm in other months;(3) The VIC model performs well in monthly natural discharge simulation for the baseline period of 1961—1990 with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.74 and relative error of 0.46%;(4) During the period of 1991—2020, climate change increased runoff by 21.8 mm, while human activities decreased runoff by 45.0 mm. Construction and operation of water conservancy projects in the Datong River is the dominated reason of runoff reduction at the Xiangtang hydrometric station.