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【Objective】 Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) represents a fundamental， non-negotiable constraint on sustainable urbanization. Quantifying the dynamic coupling and interaction intensity between WRCC and urbanization systems is critical for addressing pervasive water supply-demand imbalances and aquatic ecosystem degradation， and informing evidence-based sustainable regional water management. 【Method】 We developed a four-dimensional urbanization subsystem (population-society-economy-ecology) and a three-dimensional WRCC subsystem (endowment-utilization-management)， and curated 21 representative indicators. We used dual regression-correlation criteria to classify distinct coupling relationship types. Integrating this classification approach with a sliding window weighted network model， we characterized the 2004-2023 coupling dynamics in Jiangxi Province across three dimensions: indicator correlation intensity， subsystem co-evolution， and network modularity. 【Result】 (1) The urbanization-WRCC system in Jiangxi underwent a clear three-stage evolutionary trajectory: "trade-off dominance with expanding scope→positive coordination dominance→co-dominance of trade-off and negative coordination." (2) The proportion of water sections with excellent water quality emerged as the most robust and stable indicator of positive coordination. Policy-responsive synergy indicators (water conservancy and environmental investment ratio， R&D expenditure intensity) exerted synergistic effects mediated by the causal chain of "economic growth→R&D investment→environmental protection investment→ecological water security." (3) GDP water intensity remained the dominant， persistent constraint that consistently exacerbated inter-system trade-offs and impeded synergistic development throughout the study period. (4) Urban per capita daily domestic water consumption and per capita GDP were key negative coordination indicators， whose driving effects increased markedly in the later study period and thus warrant targeted regulatory intervention. 【Conclusion】 Urbanization-WRCC coupling in Jiangxi exhibits pronounced phased dynamic evolution， with key indicators playing divergent and context-dependent roles. Effective future management must be tightly coupled to the evolutionary characteristics of these key indicators， and deploy precise， proactive management strategies to advance long-term regional sustainable development.
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Basic Information:
China Classification Code:F299.21;TV213.4
Citation Information:
[1]ZHOU Yun,FENG Qian,WU SongLin ,et al.Coupling between Urbanization and Water Resources Carrying Capacity from a Complex Network Perspective[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition)().
Fund Information:
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209005); 江西省水利厅科技项目(202325ZDKT08)
2026-07-22
2026-07-22
2026-07-22